![]() By itself, it has a 45% r-squared to slugging percentage. In fact, barrel rate alone can tell you a lot about power production. He’s off to a strong start there as well, with four barrels already in 2020 (13.8%). Last year, he barreled up 11.2% of his batted balls, an 82nd-percentile mark in the major leagues (minimum 100 batted balls) and far ahead of the overall average of 7.4%. Yaz (look, we’re pretty far into this article and we’re all friends here, I’m going to stop going full last names if that’s alright with you) gets into some power, no doubt. You need some serious thump to get that many extra bases sustainably, and that means stacks and towers of barrels, barrels you can’t even see over, if you want any shot at such power. 333 ISO is the domain of Mike Trout and Christian Yelich. I don’t think it’s a complete mirage or anything, but a. Sadly, I’m not totally sold on the newfound power either. Dingers and doubles aren’t a matter of the ball finding a hole they’re the batter making a hole. What about that sweet, sweet power, though? Surely that isn’t affected by the vagaries of whether singles fall in. Not even the pie-in-the-sky-est fan would expect a guy striking out a quarter of the time to keep batting. 385, which means it’s a good idea to lower expectations for his average on contact. 300 naive estimate we all use in our heads (.311 and. 329, and ZiPS and Steamer both project tallies above the. Per Statcast, his expected BABIP last year was. 385 BABIP through 12 games, and that’s not sustainable, even if his contact quality suggests he’s above average in that department. But take heart! Yastrzemski’s isn’t that common early-season breakout, the BABIP false idol, at least not entirely. Probably not, sadly enough for this hypothetical Giants fan. But it could be real, right? The team could have found a new superstar, right? It’s the offensive value, the leading-baseball-in-WAR offensive explosion that makes Giants fans mostly shrug their shoulders but also rub their hands together greedily when they think no one’s looking. He’s not a long-term premium defender - he’s nearly 30, for one thing, and has only average straight-line speed - but tuck him in a corner, and he’ll be inoffensive at worst and an asset at best.īut the exciting part about Yastrzemski isn’t the fielding, at least not mostly. He looked good both by the eye test and by the advanced statistics troika of DRS, UZR, and OAA last year in the corners, and looks at least reasonable in center so far this season. Twelve games does not a season make, but if you could make his whole season out of the last two weeks, he’d basically be Mike Trout - an up-the-middle defender with a 200-ish wRC+. ![]() Oh yeah - he’s playing freaking center field every day, too. His ceiling is this year’s white-hot start. If the start of 2020 is any indication, however, last year wasn’t Yastrzemski’s ceiling.
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